Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature on 13 July 2026 and publish it in their Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that official minimum, with settlement in USDC once the Observatory finalises the data—typically within days of the observation date.

July in Hong Kong sits at the peak of the southwest monsoon season, with mean daily minima around 26°C and historical absolute minima for the month ranging from 20.1°C to 24.5°C. The 0% crowd probability reflects the difficulty in forecasting a specific temperature range nearly two years ahead; seasonal weather patterns are predictable at a broad level, but daily minima depend on cloud cover, rainfall, and upper-air dynamics that remain uncertain at such distance. Comparable July dates show tight clustering in the 24–27°C band, making extreme cold or heat outliers statistically unlikely but not impossible during anomalous monsoon breaks.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts and the El Niño Southern Oscillation phase as they approach mid-2026, since both influence monsoon intensity and cloud patterns across Hong Kong. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and 30-day outlooks; any shift toward drier or cooler conditions in early July would tighten the probability distribution around lower temperature bands. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's publication schedule—delays in data release would postpone resolution, though historical precedent shows consistent timely reporting.

Methodology

This page reads Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.