Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

Credible Finance is conducting an on-chain public sale on MetaDAO, targeting between $2.0m and $4.0m in USDC commitments, with $2.315m already soft-committed by institutional investors [1][9]. The market resolves to “Yes” if the official “committed” figure on the sale page reaches the title’s threshold before the 31 August 2026 deadline, regardless of later refunds [1]. Settlement is in USDC, and the mechanism locks funds in a treasury contract accessible only via monthly budget allowances or market-approved proposals [3][4].

Historically, MetaDAO raises have shown strong completion rates when soft commits exceed the minimum goal early; a prior October 2025 raise secured $155m in committed capital, while eight ICOs collectively raised $25.6m with over $290m in total commitments [2][3]. The 99% YES probability reflects this pattern: once institutional soft commits cover the floor, the discretionary cap is typically met as retail and whale flows converge, especially when liquidity pools are auto-deployed with 20% of funds [3].

Traders should monitor the sale page’s live “committed” counter for threshold breaches, any MetaDAO governance proposals altering the cap, and Solana network activity indicating whale USDC inflows [1][3]. Credible’s maximum valuation cap is $9m, and the sale remains open until the threshold is hit or the deadline passes [10]. Recent VC backing from Paradigm, which invested $2.2m to advance MetaDAO’s futarchy model, reinforces platform credibility and may accelerate final commitment momentum [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.