Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record its highest temperature on 13 July 2026, with settlement determined by historical data from Wunderground. The market resolves to whichever temperature bracket captures the peak reading for that calendar day, measured in Fahrenheit. Current crowd pricing reflects extreme uncertainty, with zero probability assigned to any single outcome—a state typical for weather markets more than eighteen months ahead of the event date.

July temperatures at Dallas Love Field historically cluster between 94–98°F, with occasional peaks above 100°F during heat domes. The station's all-time July record sits at 103°F. Comparable July 13 readings from prior years show a median high near 96°F, though the distribution is wide enough that outcomes spanning 90–102°F all carry meaningful historical precedent. The 0% crowd probability reflects the genuine difficulty of forecasting a specific day's peak temperature across such a distant horizon rather than any structural market failure.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal climate patterns as 2026 approaches, particularly ENSO conditions and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures that influence North American summer heat. The National Weather Service typically issues extended outlooks three to four weeks before the settlement date; those forecasts will provide the first concrete directional signal. Wunderground's historical data feed remains the sole authoritative source, making data availability and station continuity the only operational dependencies that could affect resolution.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.