Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Ann Li and Diane Parry are scheduled to meet in the Roland Garros women's singles draw on 28 May 2026. The match carries a 100% implied probability for resolution, suggesting market participants assess minimal risk of cancellation or scheduling disruption. Settlement occurs in USDC against the outcome by 4 June 2026, allowing traders a narrow window to reassess if injury reports or draw changes emerge before the French Open fortnight concludes.

Historical precedent for WTA matches at Roland Garros shows cancellation rates below 2% once draws are published and players arrive on-site. Retirements mid-match occur in roughly 3–4% of main-draw contests, typically triggered by acute injury rather than pre-match withdrawal. The 100% YES probability reflects this baseline reliability; markets pricing Roland Garros fixtures at such extremes usually do so only when both players have confirmed participation and no scheduling conflicts exist. Comparable early-round women's matches in 2025 settled without incident at similar probability levels.

Traders should monitor the ATP/WTA injury report circuits and official Roland Garros draw confirmations through late May. Recent ATP funding rates on major exchanges show macro volatility has not materially affected tennis market liquidity; spot BTC/ETH movements rarely correlate with individual match resolution risk. The critical catalyst remains player fitness announcements in the 72 hours before play. Should either competitor withdraw or the match be rescheduled beyond 4 June, the 50-50 tie-break clause activates, forcing liquidation at parity regardless of underlying form.

Methodology

This page reads Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.