Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 81% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 46% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 44% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 40% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 37% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 34% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 32% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 32% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 24% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 20% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 18% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, spain vs. argentina - player props stands at 88% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Argentina, scheduled for July 19 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
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