Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 46.5 | 83% |
| O/U 54.5 | 81% |
| O/U 52.5 | 74% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 67% |
| Oregon O/U 27.5 | 67% |
| Oregon vs. USC | 64% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| Spread -0.5 | 63% |
| Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| Spread -12.5 | 59% |
| Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 1H Moneyline | 59% |
| O/U 58.5 | 58% |
| Oregon O/U 30.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 34.5 | 54% |
| USC O/U 27.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 54% |
| Spread -12.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 37.5 | 53% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 15.5 | 53% |
| O/U 60.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 51% |
| Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 78.5 | 50% |
| O/U 80.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Touchdowns O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| USC 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| USC 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| USC Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| USC Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| USC Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| USC Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| USC Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| USC Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 49% |
| Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| USC 1H O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| Spread -5.5 | 45% |
| O/U 62.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 45% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 17.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| O/U 64.5 | 42% |
| USC O/U 30.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -0.5 | 37% |
| O/U 66.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| O/U 70.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 37.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -11.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| 2Q O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 21% |
| O/U 68.5 | 21% |
| O/U 76.5 | 20% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| O/U 72.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| O/U 82.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 83% YES probability for Oregon vs. USC. In the upcoming college football game between Oregon and USC, scheduled for September 26 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Oregon" if Oregon win the game. This market will resolve to "USC" if…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $284K.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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