Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 31.5 | 92% |
| O/U 33.5 | 92% |
| O/U 35.5 | 90% |
| O/U 37.5 | 83% |
| O/U 39.5 | 79% |
| O/U 41.5 | 74% |
| O/U 43.5 | 71% |
| Navy vs. UAB | 70% |
| Spread -0.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 68% |
| Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 1H Moneyline | 63% |
| O/U 47.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 59% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 59% |
| Spread -3.5 | 57% |
| Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Navy O/U 27.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Spread -5.5 | 54% |
| O/U 49.5 | 54% |
| Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| UAB Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Navy O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| UAB O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UAB O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| UAB O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UAB O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Navy 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Navy 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Navy 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| UAB 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| UAB 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| UAB 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Navy 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Navy 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Navy 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| UAB 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| UAB 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| UAB 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Navy O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| UAB O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Navy vs. UAB: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Navy vs. UAB: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Navy vs. UAB: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Navy 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UAB 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UAB 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UAB Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UAB Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UAB Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Navy Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UAB Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Navy vs. UAB: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy vs. UAB: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Navy vs. UAB: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| O/U 51.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| Navy O/U 30.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| O/U 53.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| O/U 55.5 | 37% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| Spread -11.5 | 35% |
| O/U 57.5 | 34% |
| Spread -12.5 | 33% |
| Spread -13.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -0.5 | 30% |
| UAB O/U 27.5 | 30% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| Spread -15.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 61.5 | 24% |
| Spread -18.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| O/U 63.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 65.5 | 17% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| O/U 67.5 | 14% |
| Spread -22.5 | 13% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| Spread -24.5 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| O/U 71.5 | 9% |
| Spread -28.5 | 8% |
| Spread -25.5 | 8% |
| Spread -12.5 | 7% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 92% probability to navy vs. uab. In the upcoming college football game between Navy and UAB, scheduled for September 25 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Navy" if Navy win the game. This market will resolve to "UAB" if UAB w…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $385K.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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