In this guide
Key takeaway: Prediction markets enable you to trade on how real-world events will unfold. Acquire YES or NO contracts that settle at $1 upon correct prediction. This approach proves more accessible than equities trading, with entry points as low as $1.
Greetings to the world of prediction markets. Whenever you have thought "that is bound to occur" — you have already grasped the core concept of prediction market participation. The practical distinction lies in your ability to commit capital to your thesis and realise gains when your assessment proves accurate. This introductory guide to prediction markets will have you executing trades within five minutes.
How prediction markets work (the 60-second version)
Prediction markets establish tradeable propositions centred on forthcoming occurrences. Consider these illustrations:
- "Will the Fed cut interest rates in June?" — YES contracts at $0.65, NO contracts at $0.35
- "Will Bitcoin close above $90K on December 31?" — YES contracts at $0.55, NO contracts at $0.45
- "Will France win the 2026 World Cup?" — YES contracts at $0.13, NO contracts at $0.87
Every contract settles at precisely $1 should the event materialise, or $0 if it does not occur. The prevailing market price embodies the collective probability assessment. Should you perceive market mispricing, you execute a trade — and when your judgment proves sound, you capture value.
Step 1: Choose a platform
Two principal prediction market venues dominate by scale:
- Polymarket — foremost in trading volume, blockchain-native (USDC settled on Polygon), accessible internationally (US residents excluded)
- Kalshi — CFTC-authorised, fiat-denominated, restricted to US participants
PolyGram connects you to Polymarket's depth of liquidity through a streamlined user experience — email-based authentication, wallet-free onboarding, and optimised mobile experience. We suggest commencing with this option.
Step 2: Fund your account
On PolyGram, account capitalisation presents minimal friction. You may fund through card payments or blockchain transfers. Begin modestly — $10-50 suffices for initial positions. Additional capital can be introduced at your discretion.
Step 3: Find a market you understand
A frequent novice error involves participating in markets lacking personal domain knowledge. Concentrate on sectors you actively monitor:
- Monitor political developments? Engage with electoral markets
- Monitor athletic competitions? Participate in match outcome trading
- Monitor blockchain ecosystems? Position on price thresholds
- Monitor technology sectors? Forecast announcements and policy shifts
Step 4: Place your first trade
Navigate PolyGram's markets page and identify a proposition where current pricing diverges from your assessment. Should the market price at 40% whilst you assess 60%, acquire YES contracts. Your expected profit if successful: $1.00 - $0.40 = $0.60 per contract (representing 150% upside).
Step 5: Manage your position
Upon acquiring contracts, three pathways emerge:
- Retain until settlement: Await event resolution. Correct positions yield $1 per contract upon finalisation
- Exit profitably early: Should pricing move favourably ahead of settlement, liquidate your position to realise gains without awaiting conclusion
- Limit downside exposure: If fresh intelligence alters your conviction, exit the position at a loss rather than anticipating recovery
Risk management for beginners
- Restrict any single market allocation to 5% maximum of your account balance
- Prioritise high-volume markets (substantial trading activity, narrow pricing spreads) — sidestep obscure propositions with minimal participation
- Document outcomes systematically to identify your analytical edges
- Acknowledge that even 90% probability outcomes fail approximately once per ten occurrences
Prepared to execute your inaugural prediction market position? Begin trading on PolyGram →