In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and market breadth. Kalshi stands out as the sole federally-regulated option for US participants. Manifold excels for casual, non-monetary forecasting games. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram emerges as the preferred choice.
Since 2024, prediction markets have surged dramatically in adoption and trading volume. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up heading into 2025.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in yearly trading activity. Most liquid venues for political and digital asset prediction contracts |
| Markets | Exceeds 1,000 concurrent markets spanning elections, blockchain, athletics, research, and entertainment |
| Fees | Zero house edge model. Bid-ask spreads range from 1–3 cents per contract |
| Currency | USDC deployed on Polygon (blockchain wallet needed) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding United States. Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Professional forecasters and informed market participants |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market operator. It welcomes US-domiciled traders who cannot participate on Polymarket and has experienced substantial user expansion. Trade-offs include: narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, and regulatory constraints that restrict certain contract categories from being offered.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using fictional currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform serves as an excellent sandbox for sharpening forecasting abilities and engaging in collective prediction exercises — yet it remains unsuitable for those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem hosts more than 10,000 user-initiated prediction events.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of quantitative forecasts submitted by its specialist community. Trading with real capital is unavailable, though the platform excels at establishing forecast credibility and tackling complex international scenarios. Academic institutions frequently reference Metaculus data when evaluating forecasting methodology effectiveness.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the peer-to-peer betting exchange model and continues processing enormous volumes across sporting and electoral outcomes annually. Strengths include: conventional currency settlement, FCA oversight, unmatched sports market depth. Limitations: 2–5% take on net profits, absence of blockchain-based instruments, comparatively sparse election market selection versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
If you're based in Europe or internationally and seek maximum trading liquidity alongside the broadest contract selection: Polymarket through PolyGram is the optimal solution. PolyGram streamlines the technical barriers of blockchain interaction whilst preserving full connectivity to Polymarket's complete market depth. Start trading on PolyGram →