In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of available markets. Kalshi offers the only pathway for US-based participants seeking regulatory compliance. Manifold provides an excellent playground for casual forecasters and entertainment-focused prediction activities without financial stakes. For participants across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
The prediction market sector has witnessed remarkable growth throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Exceeds $1.5B in yearly transaction volume. Most competitive pricing across political and digital asset categories |
| Markets | Over 1,000 concurrent opportunities. Coverage spans politics, digital assets, athletics, scientific developments, entertainment |
| Fees | Zero platform markup. Typical bid-ask spreads range from 1 to 3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (blockchain wallet required) |
| Access | Worldwide availability (excluding United States). Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Professional forecasters and institutional participants seeking competitive advantage |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi stands as the sole CFTC-authorised prediction market accessible to US residents. The platform has experienced substantial expansion in user base and trading activity. Trade-offs include: narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, and regulatory constraints that restrict certain categories of predictions from being offered.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates on a fictional currency system ("mana") rather than actual financial assets. The platform excels as a learning environment for developing forecasting skills and enabling collaborative community-based predictions — yet remains unsuitable for those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem supports in excess of 10,000 user-initiated prediction categories.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of forecast submissions from its specialist forecaster network. While participation involves no financial incentives, the platform provides valuable opportunities for establishing forecasting credentials and specialising in complex geopolitical scenarios. Academic institutions frequently reference Metaculus data when evaluating forecast quality and methodology.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair represents the original peer-to-peer betting exchange, processing substantial annual volumes across sporting events and electoral predictions. Strengths include: traditional currency support, FCA oversight, exceptional liquidity in sports betting. Limitations encompass: 2-5% commission structure on net returns, absence of blockchain-based markets, comparatively restricted political market selection versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum trading depth and comprehensive market selection: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines the blockchain interface while preserving full access to Polymarket's underlying order books. Start trading on PolyGram →