In this guide
Key takeaway: The CFTC has become the de facto US regulator for prediction markets since 2022. Platforms must register as Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) or face enforcement. Kalshi is the only fully compliant platform; Polymarket settled and geo-blocks US users.
Should you be participating in prediction markets from within the United States — or thinking about doing so — grasping the CFTC's oversight of prediction markets is absolutely essential. This regulatory body dictates which contracts remain tradeable, which venues permit access, and what compliance measures apply.
What is the CFTC?
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission represents the principal federal regulator overseeing commodity futures, options, and derivatives trading. Given that prediction market instruments behave much like binary options contracts, they come under CFTC authority whenever they are made available to American participants.
Key CFTC Enforcement Actions
Polymarket (January 2022)
Polymarket reached a settlement with the CFTC for $1.4 million due to running an unregistered event contract exchange. The settlement's principal components encompassed:
- $1.4M in civil penalties
- Commitment to discontinue non-compliant contract offerings
- Implementation of geographic restrictions preventing US-based users from accessing the platform directly
Following the settlement resolution, Polymarket has concentrated efforts on international expansion whilst investigating potential routes toward US regulatory compliance.
Kalshi vs. CFTC (2023-2024)
Kalshi, operating as a CFTC-registered DCM, initiated legal proceedings against the CFTC after the regulator declined approval for its election-related contracts. This pivotal litigation determined that the CFTC lacks authority to impose categorical prohibitions on event contracts merely because they reference political contests — a significant development for market participants. The DC Circuit's decision substantially broadened the scope for event contract innovation.
Nadex and Other Platforms
Nadex (North American Derivatives Exchange) has long provided CFTC-regulated binary options, encompassing certain event-based offerings. Their operational structure illustrates that compliant prediction markets remain achievable within the current regulatory framework.
What Makes a Prediction Market Legal in the US?
For a platform to lawfully provide prediction market instruments to Americans, it must satisfy these requirements:
- Obtain DCM registration from the CFTC
- Meet Core Principles — 23 operational standards encompassing market monitoring, financial safeguards, and participant safeguards
- Secure contract authorisation — each distinct event contract category requires submission and non-objection from the CFTC
- Deploy KYC/AML systems — customer identification and financial crime prevention frameworks
The "Gaming" Exception
The Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) restricts event contracts tied to "gaming" — a definition the CFTC construes expansively. Consequently, sports-focused prediction markets remain legally uncertain. Historically, the CFTC has maintained that sports event contracts qualify as gaming, though Kalshi's judicial victory has complicated this interpretation.
What Happens if You Trade on Unregistered Platforms?
Retail traders themselves encounter limited enforcement exposure — the CFTC pursues venues rather than individual participants. Nevertheless, utilising unregistered exchanges introduces substantial risks:
- CFTC protections for customer assets do not extend to your holdings
- Your deposits lack mandatory segregation safeguards
- You forfeit CFTC remedies should the venue collapse or behave dishonestly
For comprehensive international regulatory frameworks, consult our 2026 global regulation guide. Interested in trading through a properly regulated venue? Discover PolyGram's platform features. Start trading on PolyGram →