Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s **lowest temperature on 5 August 2026** will be the Hong Kong Observatory’s published daily minimum in Celsius, and this market settles on the final figure in the HKO “Daily Extract” once the data is finalised. The crowd is already pricing an **extremely high probability for 27°C**, with only a small tail on **26°C**, which fits a typical late-summer Hong Kong night when humidity and light winds limit radiative cooling.[1][4][5]

The current setup is best read against recent precedent: August in Hong Kong often produces minimums in the high 20s, but sharper dips can occur when rain bands or stronger monsoon flow move through. In August 2025, the Observatory reported a monthly low of **24.0°C on 5 August** during widespread heavy rain, showing that the settlement can move materially if a weather system changes the overnight profile.[15] By contrast, short-range guidance linked to this market has pointed to **27°C** as the most likely reading, with model support and forecast commentary aligning on limited cooling overnight.[1]

For traders, the practical catalysts are the Observatory’s near-term updates, any changes to the local rainfall and wind forecast, and the timing of the final daily extract after midnight local time. The market cannot resolve until the HKO publishes the finalised data for the date, so late revisions in the forecast matter more than headline seasonal expectations. In broader macro terms, this is a clean USDC-settled weather contract rather than a BTC or ETH hedge, so crypto flows only matter indirectly through overall risk appetite and platform liquidity, not through the underlying settlement itself.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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