Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s airport needs only a modest warm-up to land a highest daily temperature in the low teens Celsius in August, with long-run August averages for the city around 12°C to 13.6°C and the month described as the coldest part of the year locally.[1][2][7] That makes the current **0% YES** crowd view look like an extreme pricing of a cold outcome rather than a statement that a mild day is impossible; at Wellington, the question is usually whether the afternoon briefly clears enough to push above the seasonal norm, not whether summer-like heat is on the table.[1][15]

Comparable August readings also suggest the market should be read as a weather-volatility contract rather than a binary temperature guess. Historical summaries show Wellington’s August highs are typically clustered near 12°C to 13°C, while day-to-day ranges can still produce individual highs in the mid-teens when winds ease and sunshine breaks through.[2][6][10] For settlement, the relevant number is the single highest reading at Wellington Intl Airport Station on the day, so the final print can be lifted by a short-lived afternoon spike even if the broader day feels cool and unsettled.[12]

The main catalysts are the local forecast evolution into the New Zealand afternoon and any change in wind, cloud cover, or frontal timing near Wellington Harbour, because those drive whether the airport gets brief heating or stays under a marine layer. Traders should also watch the timing of the Wunderground station update itself, since the market settles off that source rather than a general city forecast, and the contract window closes at 12:00 UTC, which means the key observational period is the preceding Wellington day rather than the following one.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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