Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco's highest temperature on 10 August 2026 will be recorded at the airport station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or an expectation of data unavailability at settlement. Resolution occurs at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date, with USDC settlement tied to the specific temperature band containing the peak reading.

Historical August conditions at San Francisco International Airport show typical highs between 70–75°F, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 85°F. The Bay Area's coastal marine layer typically moderates afternoon temperatures even in summer months. August 2023 saw a peak of 79°F on the 10th; August 2024 recorded 77°F. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects either low liquidity or traders awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts closer to the date. Early-August heat waves affecting California's interior rarely penetrate the coastal airport location with full intensity.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns from late July onwards, as offshore high-pressure systems drive the rare heat events that could push temperatures above historical norms. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific influence August weather patterns; current oceanic data from NOAA will clarify whether 2026 favours warmer or cooler conditions. The market's zero probability across all ranges suggests settlement mechanics or data-source reliability concerns may be deterring participation, making early positioning potentially valuable if confidence in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table accessibility increases.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.