Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market settles on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 15 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The 1% crowd probability reflects expectation of a moderately warm but not extreme summer day in the Paris region during mid-August.

Historical August temperatures at Le Bourget show a median high around 25–26°C, with extremes ranging from 18°C in cooler years to 38°C during heatwaves. The 2003 European heatwave saw Paris reach 40°C in early August; more recently, August 2022 peaked at 35°C. A 1% probability typically corresponds to outcomes in the upper tail—likely reflecting settlement brackets above 32–34°C—which occur in roughly one in twenty years when Atlantic blocking patterns or Saharan air masses dominate. Traders should cross-reference Météo-France historical data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal outlook for August 2026 to calibrate tail-risk pricing.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 August 2026. Traders should monitor late-July and early-August 2026 weather model consensus; significant heatwave signals from ECMWF or GFS runs ten to fourteen days prior would shift probabilities materially. USDC settlement occurs post-resolution once Weather Underground data is finalised. On-chain liquidity and funding rates on btc-prediction.bet may reflect broader macro sentiment if European energy concerns or climate-linked volatility spike during summer 2026, though this market's outcome is independent of crypto spot or derivatives markets.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Paris on August 15? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

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