Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Market context

LaGuardia Airport's daily high temperature on 12 June 2026 will be recorded and settled against predetermined Fahrenheit ranges. The market currently shows 100% implied probability across all outcome brackets, indicating either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery. Settlement relies on Wunderground's historical weather database for the KLGA station, with the window closing at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date itself—a tight constraint that leaves no room for post-event data corrections.

New York City's June weather patterns show considerable year-to-year variance. Historical data from the past two decades places typical mid-June highs between 75°F and 82°F, though outliers exist: June 2022 saw temperatures reach 89°F, whilst cooler years have peaked in the low 70s. The National Weather Service's 30-year normal for 12 June sits near 78°F. Current market saturation at 100% across all brackets suggests traders may be awaiting the actual forecast release, which typically becomes reliable five to seven days before the event. Seasonal patterns favour warm but not extreme conditions in early-to-mid June before peak summer heat arrives.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast as early June approaches, particularly any anomalies in upper-atmosphere patterns or Atlantic tropical activity that could drive unseasonable conditions. The settlement mechanism's strict noon UTC cutoff means any temperature recorded after that point will not factor into resolution, creating a technical edge for those tracking LaGuardia's typical diurnal heating cycle. USDC settlement ensures no slippage on the on-chain side once Wunderground data is confirmed.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.