Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and resolved via Weather Underground. The market currently shows a 0% probability for the “YES” outcome, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specified range. This near-zero stance suggests traders expect conditions to remain within historical norms rather than spike into extreme territory.

Historical data frames this expectation: LaGuardia’s July highs typically range from 81°F to 99°F, with the all-time record of 107°F set on 3 July 1966[1][4]. On 1 July 2026, the actual high was 80°F, below the historic average of 85.2°F and well short of the 97°F record for that date[6]. Such consistency in recent readings supports the crowd’s low-probability view, as extreme heat events in early July remain rare at this station.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts, heat advisories from the National Weather Service, and any shifts in regional pressure patterns that could trigger sudden temperature spikes[2]. While no immediate announcements are scheduled, funding rates and whale flows in BTC/ETH markets may influence on-chain liquidity for USDC-settled contracts, affecting trade execution[7]. Exchange spot prices and funding rate divergences could also signal macro sentiment shifts relevant to prediction market participation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.