Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's daily maximum temperature on 15 August 2026 will be recorded and resolved against preset ranges. The market uses Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the authoritative source, prioritising that dataset over summary figures. Settlement occurs in USDC against the specific temperature band containing the highest reading in Fahrenheit on that date.

New York's August climate exhibits substantial year-to-year variance. Historical data from LaGuardia shows August highs ranging from the mid-70s Fahrenheit in cooler years to the low 90s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an expectation of moderate conditions or uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve. August 2023 saw peak temperatures near 90°F; August 2024 remained cooler. This two-year comparison provides the nearest comparable reference points for calibrating seasonal expectations.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasting updates from late July and early August 2026, particularly from the National Weather Service and NOAA seasonal outlooks. Atlantic hurricane activity and jet stream positioning in mid-August typically influence Northeast temperature patterns. Any significant heat dome or tropical system tracking toward the Northeast in the weeks preceding the settlement date would shift probabilities materially. Real-time funding rate movements on crypto markets often correlate with macro volatility; sustained risk-off sentiment could affect participation in weather derivatives, though the underlying temperature outcome remains independent of on-chain mechanics.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in NYC on August 15? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.