Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's peak temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded in the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground and resolved to the nearest temperature bracket. The settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date, with USDC payouts distributed to holders of the winning range contract. Current crowd pricing reflects 0% implied probability across all ranges, suggesting either sparse liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will capture the day's high.

August in New York typically peaks between 82–88°F at LaGuardia, with extreme heat events (90°F+) occurring roughly once per decade during the month. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that mid-August heat waves correlate with Atlantic high-pressure systems and occasionally with tropical storm remnants tracking northward. The 2019 heat dome that pushed New York to 92°F on 20 August and the more moderate 85°F recorded on 11 August 2022 provide recent benchmarks for typical late-summer volatility.

Traders should monitor the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 10-day forecast issued around 2–3 August 2026, which will clarify whether a Bermuda high or frontal system dominates the Northeast. Any tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic during early August could shift moisture patterns and suppress afternoon peaks, whilst a stalled ridge would favour temperatures in the 87–92°F range. Weather Underground's station-level data feeds into on-chain resolution via oracle mechanisms; confirm the specific LaGuardia sensor designation before settlement to avoid discrepancies between airport terminals or nearby weather stations.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in NYC on August 11? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

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Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.