Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded by the Observatory and published in its official Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory finalises and publishes the reading, typically within days of the observation period.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong show considerable seasonal consistency. The 30-year average daily maximum for mid-June sits around 31–32°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C during this period. The Observatory's records indicate that June heat typically peaks later in the month as the southwest monsoon strengthens; early-to-mid June often experiences lower maxima than late June. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a narrow range outcome or minimal liquidity and participation in this specific contract. Comparable June dates from recent years provide the most reliable baseline: checking the Observatory's historical Daily Extract data for 13 June in 2023, 2024, and 2025 would establish whether this date tends toward cooler or warmer extremes within the month.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in early June 2026, as these significantly alter temperature trajectories. The Southwest Monsoon onset, typically occurring in May, influences atmospheric circulation patterns through mid-June. Real-time settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's publication schedule; any delays in data release would postpone resolution despite the market's nominal close date.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

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