Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's maximum temperature on 19 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their daily climate extract. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though final data publication may extend beyond market close, creating a brief resolution lag typical of meteorological markets. The contract resolves to a specific temperature range in Celsius to one decimal place, with USDC settlement on-chain once the Observatory publishes the "Absolute Daily Max" figure.

August in Hong Kong typically sees daily maxima between 31–34°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing toward 36–37°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows that temperatures above 35°C occur in roughly 5–10% of August days during typical years, whilst readings below 30°C are rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range clarification or treating this as a calibration test; without published range brackets, the market lacks clear reference points for positioning.

The Hong Kong Observatory updates climate data with a lag of 1–2 days after observation. Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during mid-August 2026, as monsoon systems can suppress temperatures significantly. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during that period will also influence regional heat patterns. The Observatory's daily weather bulletins and seasonal outlooks, published weekly, provide the most reliable forward guidance for August conditions.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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