Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in its Daily Extract climate database. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though the actual temperature reading must be finalised before the market resolves. This is a straightforward weather outcome with no discretion in measurement—the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place determines the bracket.

August is Hong Kong's hottest month, with daily maxima typically ranging from 31 to 33°C. Historical data shows that extreme heat events pushing above 35°C occur occasionally but remain outliers; the all-time August record sits considerably higher. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration exercise. Comparable August dates from prior years provide the baseline: reviewing the Observatory's historical daily extracts reveals the distribution of outcomes across different temperature bands, which should anchor expectations for any given date.

The key catalyst is the meteorological forecast issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in early August 2026, which will signal whether tropical cyclones, heat domes, or monsoon patterns are likely to influence that specific date. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in the Pacific during mid-2026 will shape regional atmospheric circulation. Traders should monitor the Observatory's ten-day outlook and any typhoon alerts, as these directly affect whether temperatures cluster in the typical 31–33°C range or deviate significantly. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory publishing its Daily Extract; delays in data release would postpone resolution.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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