Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s afternoon peak on the day will decide the payout, using the highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the summary high. With the settlement window already open, the live market is effectively a pure weather call: any late-morning heating, thunderstorm outflow, or cloud cover that caps the daily maximum below expectation can move the relevant range, while a hot, dry spell can push it up into the upper bins.

The crowd is currently pricing a 0% chance of the YES outcome, which is an extreme view relative to the local climatology. August is typically Chongqing’s hottest month, with average highs around 34°C and long-run extremes that can reach the high 30s or low 40s Celsius, so a daily maximum in the mid-30s is not unusual even without a broader heatwave.[3][7][8][13] Market pricing elsewhere on the same event has clustered around 34–35°C, reflecting model guidance for a subtropical ridge, warm southerly flow, and mostly fair conditions over Jiangbei Airport.[2]

For traders watching the mechanics, the key catalysts are the airport station observations as they publish, any updated forecast for thunderstorms, and whether overnight or early-morning convection limits solar warming before the settlement cut-off. AccuWeather’s same-day forecast has pointed to periods of clouds and sunshine with a couple of thunderstorms early in the day, a setup that can suppress the eventual high if cloud cover or rain lingers.[11][14] In crypto terms, the contract settles in USDC, so the relevant on-chain question is not directionally complex macro beta but whether liquidity remains thin enough for sharp repricing if a fresh weather print diverges from the forecast cluster.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.