Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the settlement hinging on the maximum temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting historical data entry or treating this as a calibration event before meaningful price discovery occurs. Resolution depends on Wunderground's historical weather archive, which typically updates within 24–48 hours of the settlement window close.

Chengdu's July temperatures have historically ranged between 28–35°C, with occasional spikes to 37–38°C during heatwave conditions. The city sits in the Sichuan Basin, where humid subtropical patterns produce consistent high-temperature days in midsummer. Reviewing prior years' data from the same airport station reveals that extreme outliers above 40°C are rare but not unprecedented during particularly intense heat events. Current crowd positioning at zero probability may reflect uncertainty about which temperature bracket will ultimately be confirmed, rather than genuine conviction that no reading will occur.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heatwave activity across central and western provinces. El Niño or La Niña conditions during the preceding months could shift seasonal temperature patterns. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Wunderground's historical data feed means any discrepancies between airport station records and the platform's archive could create resolution disputes, though such instances remain uncommon. USDC settlement timing will depend on manual verification once the weather data is confirmed available.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.