Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s late-summer heat is the key driver here: the market resolves to the day’s *highest* temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, not the average or the afternoon forecast, so a brief warm surge can matter more than a cloudy overall day. Current model guidance for 4 August points to around 31–32°C with patchy rain possible, while broader August climatology for Chengdu puts daytime highs in the low 30s and often around 30–32°C, with humidity and convection limiting runaway extremes. [1][2][3][7]

That is why a **0% YES** crowd price on the settlement window’s outcome should be read cautiously if the relevant band is below the market’s expected peak, because Chengdu often prints its maximum in the mid-afternoon before showers or cloud cover build. Comparable August data show 4 August frequently landing near the low 30s, with historical highs around 32.1°C in one guide and standard monthly highs near 30–32°C, which makes the exact terminal temperature sensitive to short-lived solar breaks, rain timing, and airport-specific station readings. [3][4][9]

The main catalysts to watch are the local forecast updates from now through the airport’s afternoon heating cycle, plus any revision in the chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms, since those can cap the maximum even when the morning is warm. In crypto terms, the contract settles in USDC on-chain, so the pricing is ultimately a function of whether traders think the final Wunderground observation will fall inside the target band, with broader BTC and ETH moves only relevant insofar as they affect risk appetite and liquidity rather than the weather itself. [1][2][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.