Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome of this market. The resolution hinges on data pulled from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated feeds or manual entry discrepancies occur. Settlement occurs in USDC on btc-prediction.bet following the close of the settlement window at 12:00 UTC on that date.

Chengdu's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–36 °C during mid-August. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity in this particular outcome. Comparable August readings from prior years at the same station provide the baseline; examining 2023–2025 data from Weather Underground's archives shows the airport station rarely records extremes beyond 37 °C in mid-August, though occasional spikes to 38 °C have occurred during heatwave events.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in late July and early August 2026, particularly alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat events in Sichuan Province. Atmospheric pressure systems and monsoon activity in the region typically peak in August; any unusual ridge formation or subtropical high-pressure stalling could push temperatures materially higher than the historical mean. Real-time temperature feeds from Weather Underground should be cross-checked against official Chinese weather stations to identify potential data discrepancies before settlement.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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