Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport in Busan on 28 July 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. Resolution depends on historical weather data from Weather Underground, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on the day itself. The contract will resolve to USDC once the maximum daily temperature is confirmed and verified against the airport station's official records.

Busan's July temperatures have historically clustered in the 28–32°C range, with extreme heat events pushing toward 34–35°C during particularly intense East Asian summer monsoon periods. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full range. Comparable July readings from prior years at Gimhae show that temperatures exceeding 33°C occur roughly once every three to four years, making higher ranges statistically less frequent but not unprecedented.

Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's forecasts in early July 2026, as seasonal patterns—particularly the timing and intensity of the Pacific high-pressure system—drive Busan's summer extremes. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months can shift baseline temperatures by 1–2°C. Real-time updates from Weather Underground will be critical in the final 24 hours before settlement, as afternoon readings typically exceed morning temperatures by 5–8°C. Any tropical cyclone activity affecting the Korean peninsula in late July could suppress temperatures below historical norms, materially shifting resolution outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.