Highest temperature in Busan on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s highest temperature on 6 August will be set by the peak reading at Gimhae International Airport, with settlement based on the day’s maximum Celsius value from Wunderground. The current crowd price of 0% for YES implies the market is not yet assigning any meaningful chance to a specific temperature band, which is unusual for a weather contract but can reflect uncertainty before the day’s observation window fully plays out.

The historical frame points to a hot, tightly clustered summer distribution rather than extreme volatility. Busan’s August average high is around 29–31°C, while recent forecast products for 6 August have centred on the low 30s, with one local forecast showing 31°C/26°C and another putting Busan’s daytime high at 33°C; that leaves the likely outcome concentrated in a narrow band unless a late-afternoon surge develops.[11][10][15] South Korea has also just come through a severe heatwave, with nearby Yangsan hitting 42.5°C and Busan reaching 38.8°C during the recent record spell, showing that upside tails exist when regional heat domes build over the south-east.[3][5][14]

For traders, the key inputs are the hourly temperature path at Gimhae, cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and any rainfall that caps daytime heating. A marine-influenced city such as Busan often sees maxima arrive later than inland locations, so the relevant catalyst is whether the airport clears into the mid- or upper-30s before the evening cooling trend begins; by contrast, showers or persistent south-westerlies can keep the settlement value anchored near the low 30s. Because the market settles in USDC, there is no crypto-native price discovery in the contract itself, but broader BTC and ETH moves can still affect liquidity and risk appetite on-chain if volatility across prediction markets rises at the same time.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.