Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s outcome will be decided by the **highest hourly or sub-hourly reading** logged at Gimhae International Airport, not by the rounded daily summary, so the contract is sensitive to brief spikes above the morning or afternoon forecast. With the market already at **0% YES**, traders are effectively saying the observed maximum is expected to fall outside the listed outcome band, which is consistent with a contract that settles from a single station rather than citywide averages. The broad seasonal baseline for Busan in August is hot and humid, with average highs around **30°C** and typical August maxima in the low 30s, while long-run climate references put the month’s upper-end daytime highs around the mid-30s °C.[2][6][18]

Comparable Busan climate records show that 10 August can be materially warmer than the monthly average, but the extreme tail is still limited by coastal moderation and cloud cover. Historical climate summaries list an August 10 record high of **34.6°C** for Busan, which suggests that outcomes in the **30–35°C** range are the natural reference zone for this date, even though isolated heatwaves elsewhere in South Korea have recently pushed readings far higher.[7][13] For prediction-market reading, that means the key question is not whether Korea is hot in August, but whether the airport station catches a transient peak that pushes the daily maximum into a higher temperature bucket than traders currently expect.[3][7]

For catalysts, the main watchpoints are the **local forecast updates**, the timing of any **thunderstorm or cloud cover**, and whether the airport sees a short-lived pre-frontal warming before rain cools the surface. Current public forecasts for Busan on 10 August point to thunderstorms early, overcast conditions, and a high near the mid-80s °F, which is roughly the low 30s °C and broadly in line with the market’s active temperature band.[10][15] Because settlement depends on the Wunderground Daily Observations table and revisions are counted only until the next day’s first datapoint appears, late data updates around the settlement window matter more than the headline high/low summary.[3] In crypto terms, this is a straightforward USDC-settled weather contract, so any price action in BTC or ETH is only indirectly relevant through overall risk appetite rather than the meteorological outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Busan on August 10? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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