Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Atlanta’s late-summer heat means the relevant number is the *day’s peak reading* at Hartsfield-Jackson, not the average high. August norms sit around 88.7°F for daily highs, while the site’s August records show a long-run peak of 104°F for the month and several 99–103°F readings on early-August days, so the distribution is clearly skewed towards the high 80s and low 90s rather than extreme heat on most dates.[2][4]

That makes a 0% YES price easy to read as a by-product of the market’s range framing rather than a view that the station cannot ever print a high number. The more useful historical guide is that Atlanta often clears 90°F in August but only occasionally pushes into the upper 90s, with the month’s absolute record far above the daily norm.[1][2] For a contract tied to a single calendar day, the key issue is whether the final Wunderground observation falls into the specified bucket, so the probability should be treated as sensitive to the exact temperature bands used in settlement.[2]

For catalysts, traders should watch the medium-range forecast into 1 August, any late changes in heat ridging over the south-eastern US, and whether humidity or cloud cover caps the airport’s realised maximum below the broader city forecast. If broader crypto conditions matter to positioning, BTC and ETH volatility can still influence on-chain risk appetite and USDC liquidity, but the contract itself settles purely off the Atlanta airport reading rather than exchange prices or funding rates. The practical dependency is the Wunderground daily history entry for KATL, which is the source of truth for resolution.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.