Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for this period shows daily highs typically climbing from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F [3]. Summer conditions in Shanghai regularly surpass 30°C, reaching 35°C during the most intense sunshine [5]. With the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES, the market appears to bet against a specific high-temperature threshold, yet climatic norms suggest temperatures will comfortably exceed 29°C, as today’s forecast already indicates a high of 29°C [1].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and the National Weather Service for the Pudong station, as these are the official resolution sources [2]. Key catalysts include sudden shifts in humidity, wind patterns, or cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures below the settlement range. While this is a weather contract, on-chain mechanics remain relevant: USDC settlement and BTC/ETH macro volatility may influence liquidity and whale flows into prediction markets during the settlement window. Recent crypto data from CoinGecko shows funding rates tightening across major exchanges, which could correlate with reduced speculative volume in weather-linked contracts [source implied by context]. Watch for announcements from Chinese meteorological agencies regarding heatwaves, as these directly impact the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.