Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature will be set by the reading from the Weather Underground daily observations for Pudong airport, with the market settling into one of the temperature bands on 10 August 2026. August in Shanghai is normally hot and humid: a historical August average around 32°C, with documented highs above 35°C and occasional spikes to the upper 30s, so the contract is about whether the day lands in the common low-to-mid 30s range or breaks higher.[15][18] Weather Underground’s own history pages show Shanghai daily highs in the low 30s on recent August dates, including 33.4°C on 8 August 2026, which gives a near-term anchor for how traders may be reading the setup.[5][7]

The current 0% YES implies the market is priced as if an outcome in the specified range is effectively excluded, so the gap to realised weather matters more than the headline forecast. Comparable Shanghai August observations suggest that a low reading is possible on wet, overcast days, but the city’s late-summer climatology still favours warm afternoons, especially if cloud cover breaks after morning rain.[14][15][18] For a crypto-native market, the key mechanical point is that settlement is binary and USDC-denominated, so the on-chain price will usually reflect both the weather forecast and liquidity conditions in the order book rather than any gradual fundamental repricing.

Traders should watch the forecast path into the airport’s local afternoon peak, because the contract resolves off the day’s *highest* observed temperature, not the summary high/low box. A shift in rain timing, cloud cover or convective activity could move the top reading by enough to change the settlement band, and late updates from Weather Underground’s daily observations will matter most once the day is underway.[7][14] Broader BTC and ETH conditions can still affect positioning indirectly through risk appetite and whale flow into small, weather-linked markets, but the direct catalyst is the Shanghai airport observation itself rather than any macro driver.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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