Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 31 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, where the highest daily temperature reading will determine which range resolves as correct. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, with Wunderground's historical weather database serving as the authoritative source. Temperature ranges span from below 20°C through to above 35°C, capturing the full spectrum of late spring conditions in South Korea's capital region.

Historical May temperatures at Incheon show considerable variance. The station's records indicate typical highs in the 23–28°C band during late May, though extremes have reached into the low 30s during warmer years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder until nearer-term meteorological data becomes available. Comparable late-May weather patterns from 2015–2024 reveal that temperatures exceeding 30°C occur in roughly one-third of years, whilst readings below 22°C remain uncommon but not unprecedented.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks, typically released in April, which flag whether May 2026 is expected to run warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. East Asian weather systems—particularly early monsoon activity or high-pressure systems from the Pacific—drive significant swings in late-May temperatures across the region. Current funding on weather-derivative platforms and any shifts in broader macro positioning around seasonal patterns could influence market repricing as May approaches, though the settlement mechanism's reliance on a single airport station reading leaves little room for interpretation once the date arrives.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.