Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 will be measured at the San Francisco International Airport Station (KSFO), with resolution based on Wunderground’s daily record. The market currently assigns 0% implied probability to any outcome, suggesting the crowd expects no valid temperature reading or an extreme outlier outside all listed ranges, though July highs at KSFO typically fall between 67°F and 79°F according to the 2026 forecast [2].

Historical July data shows KSFO’s warmest average day reaches 72.3°F, with the 68–69°F band holding 37.5% implied probability in a similar July 9 market before resolving to 66–67°F [1][9]. This pattern indicates that mid-July highs cluster in the low 70s, making the 0% YES probability anomalous unless tied to a technical settlement issue rather than meteorological expectation.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live KSFO feed as the settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 12 July, ensuring data continuity for USDC settlement on-chain. Any disruption in the Wunderground API or KSFO station reporting could invalidate the contract, a risk amplified by crypto market volatility where BTC/ETH funding rates and whale flows often correlate with prediction market liquidity shifts [10]. Watch for NWS climatological reports issued near the settlement date, which may confirm or contradict Wunderground’s final reading [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.