Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, with resolution sourced directly from Weather Underground's historical data for the station. USDC settlement occurs once the final temperature reading is confirmed and verified against the official record.

Late May in the Paris region typically sees maximum temperatures between 20–24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the mid-to-high 20s. Historical data from Le Bourget shows that temperatures exceeding 28°C on 31 May are uncommon but not unprecedented; the station recorded 29.4°C on 31 May 2020 and 26.8°C on the same date in 2019. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in moderate conditions or uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve. Comparable late-spring European weather markets have typically seen settlement in the 22–26°C range when no significant heat systems are forecast.

Traders should monitor European weather models from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the week leading to settlement, as these provide the most reliable guidance for Paris-region temperatures. Any Atlantic high-pressure system or Saharan heat advection in late May could shift outcomes materially. Real-time funding rates on related weather derivatives and macro conditions—including any unusual spring heat patterns affecting broader European markets—may signal shifting conviction among sophisticated traders before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Paris on May 31? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.