Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the recorded high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, which will settle this contract in USDC. Historical data from comparable late-June dates shows a consistent pattern of mid-80s Fahrenheit highs; for instance, the 24 June market also priced 82–83°F at 100% probability, while the 11 June event resolved to 94–95°F, confirming that sub-73°F outcomes are statistically negligible in this season[1][3][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the lowest range aligns with these precedents, as the historic average for June sits near 77°F with daily highs frequently reaching 84°F or above[7].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological report for LaGuardia, which will confirm the actual maximum temperature once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 June[6]. While weather is the primary driver, on-chain mechanics remain relevant; the contract’s USDC settlement ties directly to exchange spot liquidity and funding rates, meaning significant whale flows into BTC or ETH could alter capital allocation for these weather bets. Recent volatility in crypto markets suggests that funding rate shifts may influence whether traders hedge temperature exposure against macro uncertainty, though the weather outcome itself remains independent of market sentiment[8]. The resolution source is definitive data from Wunderground, ensuring no ambiguity in the final payout[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.