Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17?

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Market context

Guangzhou's maximum temperature on 17 August 2026 will be recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, fixing the outcome in USDC against whichever temperature band the station reports as its daily high in degrees Celsius.

August in Guangzhou typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past five years shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 37°C—occur roughly once every two to three years in mid-August, usually driven by sustained high-pressure systems over southern China. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a below-average heat day or uncertainty about which specific temperature bracket will resolve. Comparable August 17th readings from prior years cluster around 33–34°C under normal conditions, providing a baseline against which outlier scenarios should be weighted.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during mid-August can suppress temperatures by 2–4°C through cloud cover and moisture, whilst any westward-moving high-pressure ridge would elevate highs toward 36–38°C. Weather Underground's station-level data feeds update daily; discrepancies between its summary and Daily Observations table have historically favoured the latter by 0.5–1.5°C in Guangzhou's favour during peak summer months.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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