Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's meteorological records for mid-June show a consistent pattern of warm conditions as the city transitions into early summer. Historical data from the Beijing Capital International Airport Station indicates that temperatures in the 30–35°C range are typical for this period, with occasional peaks exceeding 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the settlement mechanics or expect the market to resolve outside standard June temperature bands—an unusual positioning given climatological norms for the region.

Comparable June 16th observations from prior years provide a baseline for calibration. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest daily temperatures on or near this date ranged from 28°C to 37°C, with most years clustering between 31°C and 34°C. The absence of any non-zero probability allocation despite this historical consistency indicates either low trading volume or confusion around the Wunderground data source and its real-time availability through the settlement window.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks for Beijing. Subtropical pressure systems and monsoon activity during this period can drive significant temperature swings. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical archive for ZBAA station data, which updates daily; any discrepancies between that source and official Chinese meteorological records could create basis risk. USDC settlement occurs post-window closure, so traders should verify data availability before the 12:00 UTC cutoff on June 16th.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.