Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Market context

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in July 2024 following Ebrahim Raisi's death in a helicopter crash, faces a 36% crowd-implied probability of leaving office before end-2026. The market captures removal through resignation, impeachment, death, or effective incapacitation—any event that severs him from the presidency triggers settlement. The two-year window is notably compressed given Iran's institutional complexity and the Supreme Leader's ultimate authority over the executive branch.

Iranian presidents have historically faced removal through impeachment, most recently Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's contested second term (2009–2013), though no sitting president has been forcibly removed since the 1979 revolution. Pezeshkian's position depends partly on factional alignment with Supreme Leader Khamenei; the 36% probability reflects baseline geopolitical volatility rather than imminent institutional crisis. Comparable emerging-market leadership markets typically price 25–40% removal risk over two-year horizons when succession mechanisms exist but political fractures remain visible.

Traders should monitor parliamentary dynamics, particularly hardliner-reformist balance in the 2024–2025 legislative session, and any escalation in regional conflict that could destabilise domestic consensus. Announcements regarding US sanctions policy, nuclear negotiations, or internal power struggles within the Guardian Council carry direct settlement weight. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News has tracked factional tensions over economic policy; any formal impeachment motion or health crisis would move the market sharply. USDC settlement on btc-prediction.bet means traders can hedge via spot BTC/ETH positions if geopolitical tail risk correlates with broader macro volatility.

Methodology

This page reads Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.