World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The tournament’s non-shootout penalties are the relevant pool here: every spot-kick awarded in open play, stoppage time or extra time can add to the count if it is missed or saved, while shootout attempts are excluded. That makes the market sensitive less to a single marquee miss than to the pace of penalty awards across a 104-match World Cup, with the settlement driven by official match data rather than narrative expectations.

Historically, World Cup penalties are scarce enough that a low threshold can still matter, but the distribution is lumpy. Opta notes that even in shootouts conversion can fall sharply at later kicks, while BBC reporting on FIFA’s 2026 law changes underscores that VAR remains active for penalties and other key decisions, which can preserve or overturn a spot-kick count after the fact.[8][1] The current 4% implied probability suggests the market is pricing a tail event rather than a routine scoring environment.

For traders, the main catalysts are the group-stage schedule, knockout officiating, and any disciplinary or VAR-heavy matches that create more penalty chances. FIFA’s 2026 tournament rules also allow the outcome to be based on completed matches if the event is truncated, which limits exposure to a partial-cup scenario.[1] On-chain, the market settles in USDC, so broader crypto conditions mainly matter through liquidity and risk appetite rather than the football data itself; BTC and ETH spot swings or funding spikes can still affect positioning in prediction-market books when macro flows tighten or loosen capital.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.