Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24?

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Market context

Tokyo's lowest temperature on 24 May 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. The 2% implied probability reflects expectation of a mild late-spring day; May in Tokyo typically sees minimum temperatures between 15–20°C, with sub-10°C readings exceptionally rare at this time of year. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 24 May, giving traders a hard deadline aligned with Tokyo's afternoon hours.

Historical precedent shows Tokyo's May minima cluster tightly around seasonal norms. Over the past two decades, temperatures below 10°C have occurred on fewer than 3% of May dates, whilst readings below 5°C are virtually absent. The 2% probability assigned to the lowest-temperature bracket likely corresponds to a sub-10°C outcome, consistent with statistical rarity. Haneda's urban heat island effect and coastal location further suppress extreme cold, making sharp departures from the 15–18°C median unlikely absent major weather disruption.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts from mid-May onwards, particularly any alerts for unseasonable cold fronts or tropical cyclone remnants tracking northward. Late-May weather patterns in the Western Pacific remain influenced by the East Asian monsoon transition; anomalous polar outbreaks are documented but infrequent. USDC settlement occurs post-resolution, with no funding-rate mechanics or leverage exposure typical of spot-crypto markets, making this a straightforward directional weather bet rather than a leveraged position.

Methodology

This page reads Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.