Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan’s hottest reading on 10 August will be judged from the **Daily Observations** table at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, not the headline day-high box, so intraday spikes and late-afternoon highs matter more than the summary forecast. Early 10 August guidance points to a warm, humid day with rain in the mix: Wunderground shows 85°F/77°F and partly cloudy conditions, while other forecast pages cluster around the high-20s to low-30s Celsius, implying a narrow band around the contract’s likely settlement ranges.[3][2][11]

The current **0% YES** crowd price is consistent with the fact that the outcome is already close to realised weather rather than a speculative season-long call. August in Wuhan is normally hot, with long-run climatology and recent August forecasts both showing frequent highs above 30°C and occasional peaks near 38°C, so the market is mainly about whether the station log reaches the upper end of the day’s band before cloud, rain, or a cooling northerly flow limits the maximum.[17][18][10]

For traders, the main catalyst is the sequence of hourly updates in the station record as the local day progresses, especially any midday clearing or convective burst that can push the maximum above the consensus forecast. Because settlement is in USDC, the key on-chain variable is not direction but the probability mass around the final temperature bucket; if broader crypto risk tightens around the event, funding and BTC/ETH flows may matter only insofar as they move capital into or out of short-dated prediction markets, not because they alter the weather itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.