Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington International Airport's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded and settled against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, with resolution tied to the highest temperature reading captured at the station throughout the full calendar day. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing this as an edge case or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the available temperature bands.

May in Wellington falls during early autumn in the Southern Hemisphere, when daily highs typically range between 13–16°C. Historical data from the past decade shows Wellington rarely exceeds 20°C in late May, with extreme highs above 25°C virtually absent during this period. The 0% implied probability across all resolution brackets indicates either extreme confidence in a specific narrow range or insufficient market participation to distribute probability mass. Traders should examine the actual temperature bands offered—if they exclude the 13–16°C range entirely, the crowd probability reflects rational pricing rather than genuine uncertainty.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include Southern Hemisphere weather pattern shifts, which typically become apparent in late April forecasting models. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) publishes monthly outlooks that may signal anomalous warmth or cold. Traders should monitor Wunderground's historical data feed directly in the weeks preceding settlement to establish baseline volatility and confirm the station's measurement consistency. Settlement depends entirely on automated data retrieval from Wunderground's archive, with no manual intervention required once the trading window closes.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.