Highest temperature in Wellington on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington Airport's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be recorded and matched against predefined Celsius ranges, with settlement via Wunderground's historical weather database. The market resolves to whichever bracket captures the peak reading for that calendar day, with USDC settlement occurring after the 12:00 UTC window closes.

July is Wellington's coldest month, with mean maximum temperatures around 11–12°C and extremes rarely exceeding 16°C at the airport station. Historical data from the past two decades shows only occasional days reaching 15°C or higher during winter; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a sub-10°C outcome as baseline. Comparable July days at Wellington Airport typically see highs between 8–13°C, though southerly outbreaks can push readings lower whilst rare nor'west föhn conditions occasionally drive spikes above seasonal norms.

New Zealand's MetService issues extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead, with updates becoming more granular five days out. Traders should monitor mid-July weather models for any anomalous warm-air advection or blocking patterns that might elevate temperatures above the seasonal median. Southern Hemisphere winter dynamics—including the Southern Annular Mode and Tasman Sea surface temperatures—influence Wellington's July weather regime; current NOAA climate indices and MetService outlooks will be material to refining probability estimates as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.