Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport's daily maximum temperature on 16 August 2026 will be recorded via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement in USDC against the specific temperature band selected. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all ranges, suggesting either early-stage liquidity or consensus that no extreme outlier conditions are expected for a mid-winter day in New Zealand's capital.

August is Wellington's coldest month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 11–13 °C. The 0% crowd reading reflects baseline meteorological patterns: winter highs in the city rarely exceed 15 °C, and sub-zero maxima are exceptionally rare. Comparable August days at Wellington Airport over the past decade show consistent clustering in the 10–13 °C band, with outliers (both warm and cold) occurring fewer than 10% of the time. This anchors the probability distribution heavily toward moderate ranges rather than extreme tails.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Tasman Sea during late July and early August 2026, as these drive synoptic weather patterns affecting Wellington. A strong anticyclone could push maxima toward 15–17 °C; conversely, a deep low-pressure system or southerly outbreak could suppress temperatures below 10 °C. MetService New Zealand's 10-day forecast, issued around 6 August, will provide the most actionable signal. Settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations extraction at Wellington Intl Airport Station—traders should verify the station's operational status and data quality ahead of the resolution window closing at 12:00 UTC on 16 August.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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