Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25?

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Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. Late May sits within Tokyo's late spring period, typically characterised by warming trends ahead of the rainy season. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity on this particular outcome range.

Tokyo's May temperatures have historically ranged between 20°C and 30°C, with averages around 24–26°C. The city experienced a maximum of 30.8°C on 25 May 2015 and 28.1°C on the same date in 2019, demonstrating variability within a relatively constrained band. Haneda Airport's coastal location moderates extremes compared to central Tokyo, typically recording 1–2°C lower peaks than inland stations. The settlement window closing at midday UTC (21:00 JST) means the final temperature reading must be confirmed before markets lock, creating a hard deadline for resolution data availability.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the week preceding 25 May, as seasonal pattern shifts or anomalous high-pressure systems could push temperatures toward 31°C or above. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 may influence broader Pacific weather patterns affecting Tokyo's spring temperatures. USDC settlement occurs post-resolution once Wunderground data finalises, typically within 24–48 hours of the settlement window close.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.