Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 23 May 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, locking in whichever temperature range captures the daily high. Current crowd pricing at 0% YES suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal liquidity across the available brackets.

Late May in Tokyo typically sees highs between 24–28°C, with occasional spikes above 30°C during early heat waves. Historical data from Wunderground shows 23 May temperatures have ranged from 22°C (2015) to 29°C (2019) over the past decade, establishing a baseline for typical spring-to-early-summer conditions. The 0% probability reading appears misaligned with this historical distribution unless the market structure concentrates all liquidity into a single narrow band, which would indicate traders have converged on a specific forecast rather than genuine uncertainty.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the week preceding 23 May, as these typically drive material repricing in weather markets. Broader atmospheric patterns—including any early monsoon activity or high-pressure systems moving across the Kanto region—will shape actual conditions. USDC settlement mechanics on btc-prediction.bet mean resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's historical archive pull; any discrepancies between real-time reporting and archived data could create settlement disputes, making source reliability material to position sizing.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.