Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s highest temperature on 22 May will be set by the day’s actual weather, with the market settling from the Wunderground daily history page once the reading is finalised. Late May in Tokyo is usually a mild-to-warm shoulder-period: daytime highs often sit in the low 20s Celsius, with occasional spikes higher if sunshine holds through the afternoon. Because the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, the key risk is whether the day’s maximum is reached before midday local time or later in the afternoon, but the contract resolves on the final recorded daily high rather than any intraday snapshot.

For context, comparable May readings in Tokyo are often clustered around the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, with brief warmer spells before the rainy season becomes established. That makes the contract’s current 0% YES implied probability look like a price driven more by lack of attention than by an obviously extreme weather setup. In weather markets, the decisive factor is usually whether the forecast shifts materially towards a clear, dry, sunny day or towards cloud, rain and sea-breeze moderation. Even a small change of a few degrees matters because the outcome is a temperature band, not a continuous figure.

The main catalysts are the latest local forecast updates, any change in cloud cover or rainfall timing, and the daytime wind pattern at Haneda, which can keep the airport several degrees cooler than inland Tokyo. Traders should watch the final pre-settlement model runs and airport-specific observations rather than Tokyo-wide averages. On the crypto side, USDC-settled liquidity is unlikely to be moved by macro unless BTC or ETH volatility is also driving risk appetite, but thin order books can leave the market sensitive to small, informed flows close to expiry.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.