Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 15 May 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, after which the highest temperature reading across all daylight hours becomes final. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or pricing extreme confidence in a specific temperature band—a signal worth examining against May climatology for the Tokyo region.

May temperatures at Haneda typically range between 20–28°C, with historical highs clustering around 25–27°C during mid-month. The 15th falls within Tokyo's late spring window, after the rainy tsuyu season begins in early June but before sustained heat arrives. Comparable May 15th readings from prior years show little volatility; the airport's location on reclaimed land near Tokyo Bay moderates extremes compared to inland stations. This historical stability underpins why traders may have abandoned positions across all temperature bands rather than hedging uncertainty.

Catalysts affecting the final reading include large-scale weather systems tracking towards Japan in early May and any unusual high-pressure ridges that could push temperatures above the 28°C threshold. The Japan Meteorological Agency publishes extended forecasts from mid-April onwards; traders should monitor their May 10–15 outlook for anomalous heat signals. Funding rates on crypto markets show no material correlation to weather derivatives, though sustained yen weakness could affect settlement mechanics if USDC pairs face liquidity shifts on Japanese exchanges during the resolution window.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 15? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.