Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 5 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "YES" outcome, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded, likely due to prevailing forecasts of mild conditions or cloud cover.

Historical patterns frame this low probability with caution, as Japan has endured its hottest July on record for three consecutive years, with nationwide averages nearly 3°C above normal and over 4,500 locations exceeding 35°C [2]. While Haneda’s July 2026 forecast typically sees highs between 76°F and 91°F (roughly 24°C to 33°C) [3], the 2025 national peak of 41.2°C in Hyogo Prefecture demonstrates that extreme outliers remain possible even in coastal zones [6]. This volatility means the 0% probability may reflect an overreaction to short-term light rain forecasts rather than a true absence of heat risk [1].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly heat advisories and any sudden shifts in funding rates for BTC or ETH, as macro volatility often correlates with speculative flows into weather contracts [2]. Recent reports indicate rainfall levels have plummeted to less than 10% of average in many regions, increasing the likelihood of sustained above-average temperatures into August [2]. Exchange spot data and whale flows on crypto exchanges may signal incoming capital into this contract if heat warnings are issued, particularly given the USDC settlement mechanism and on-chain mechanics that tie crypto market sentiment to real-world event outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.