Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s daytime heat on this contract will be measured by the **highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station** before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off, with the result paid out in **USDC** according to the market’s temperature band. The current crowd price of **0% YES** implies traders are effectively discounting a top reading in the targeted band, even though the live market page elsewhere shows **35°C** as the clear frontrunner outcome. [1]

That pricing sits against a familiar July pattern in Tokyo: typical highs are around **29–33°C**, while short heatwave spikes can push into the **high 30s**, especially with heavy humidity. Comparable summer days often cluster near **35°C**, which means the key question is not whether Tokyo is warm, but whether the airport station logs a late-morning or early-afternoon peak above the dominant band before the market closes. [2][4]

For traders, the main catalysts are the local forecast path into the settlement window, cloud cover, rain timing, and any overnight or morning heat retention that could keep the airport temperature elevated after sunrise. In crypto terms, this is a simple off-chain weather contract, but the payoff still settles on-chain in USDC, so broader BTC and ETH moves mainly matter through risk appetite and liquidity rather than the weather result itself; on quiet summer sessions, thin market participation can make odds less responsive until the final hours. [1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.